Profit vs Cash Flow: A Founder’s Guide to a 13-Week Cash Forecast

A profitable month does not tell you whether next Friday’s payments are covered. Revenue can be recognised before the customer pays. Inventory can absorb cash before it becomes an expense. A loan repayment uses cash even when the principal is not a profit-and-loss expense.

The practical question is simpler: what cash will actually be available, in which week, after the payments we expect to make? A 13-week forecast gives that question a working structure. It is a short-term operating view, not a replacement for your budget, accounts or longer-term planning.

Preview the Google Sheets template · Make your own copy

The free Google Sheets template contains four tabs: Read me, Blank, Example and Downside. Preview the view-only master in your browser, then choose Make your own copy to save an editable version to your Google Drive. You will need a Google account to make a copy; changes to your copy do not affect the master. Start with Read me for the instructions. There is no file to download or bank connection. All sample amounts below are invented currency units; they do not describe an employer, client or actual business.

Start With Cash, Not the Sales Target

Use one entity and one currency for your first version. Reconcile the opening balance to cash the business can actually use. Keep restricted balances and client money out of available cash. An undrawn facility is not cash already in the bank: show a planned draw separately, only with a supportable timing assumption.

Then map the next 13 weeks. Use expected receipt dates for customer payments and expected payment dates for suppliers, payroll, taxes, debt and capital spending. A signed order is not the same as a bank receipt. Record the assumption behind each material amount, especially anything dependent on customer acceptance, a funding approval or a disputed invoice.

This direct view follows the basic opening-balance, receipts, payments and closing-balance mechanics described in business.gov.au’s cash flow guidance. Its template is another useful starting point; the template here is an original weekly version with a separate worked scenario.

Build the First Version in Five Steps

1. Set the starting point. In the Blank sheet, enter the first week’s start date in B3 and reconciled available cash in B4. All later week dates calculate automatically.
2. Choose a minimum buffer. B5 is your own operating threshold, not a recommended universal amount. Consider unavoidable payments, collection uncertainty and how quickly you could respond to a shortfall.
3. Schedule receipts. Enter customer collections and other cash receipts in the green input cells. Use positive amounts. Separate confirmed collections from assumptions in your supporting notes; do not count an invoice twice as both a sale and a debtor receipt.
4. Schedule payments. Enter positive amounts under the appropriate categories. Include actual tax cash flows consistently: customer and supplier amounts should reflect the cash that moves, with remittances shown separately and no duplicate provision. Include financing principal and capital purchases even where they do not appear as current operating expenses.
5. Read the output. The template calculates net movement, closing cash and cash above or below your buffer. Review the lowest week, not just the final week.

The calculation is deliberately simple:

Closing cash = opening cash + receipts − payments. Next week starts with this week’s closing cash.

A negative closing balance is an unfunded gap, not an assumed overdraft. A positive closing balance below your buffer is an earlier warning. Neither number tells you what action is feasible without looking at the commitments behind it.

A Worked Example: The Problem Is Timing

Imagine a fictional business starting with 55,000 of available cash and choosing a 20,000 buffer. The Example sheet includes 13 weeks; here are its first four:

On smaller screens, scroll the table horizontally to see all four weeks.

The table combines payments for readability. The template separates them into suppliers, payroll, rent and operating costs, tax, and capital spending or debt. For example, week 1 includes 20,000 of supplier payments and 4,000 of rent and operating costs; week 4 includes 18,000 of supplier payments and 10,000 of payroll.

Now move 20,000 of the week-2 customer receipt into week 4, leaving the first four weeks’ payments unchanged. This is the timing change in the template’s Downside tab. Closing cash becomes 46,000, 31,000, 27,000 and 41,000. Week 3 has only 7,000 above the chosen buffer, rather than 27,000 in the base case, although week 4 catches up completely.

The total collected over those four weeks has not changed. The timing has. Looking only at the month-end position would miss the pressure in the middle.

That is where judgement enters: confirm the collection date, identify which commitments are fixed and assess realistic options before the pressure arrives. Do not quietly move an unavoidable payment to make the model look better. If a supplier agrees a different date, record the agreement and update the assumption.

Test a Downside You Can Explain

The included Downside tab also adds a fictional 10,000 contingency supplier payment in week 6. Across the full 13 weeks, the base case reaches a low of 19,000, while the Downside reaches 9,000: respectively 1,000 and 11,000 below the 20,000 buffer. The Downside links to the fictional Example, not your Blank tab. To stress-test your own forecast, duplicate your completed sheet and change specific input assumptions there.

Begin with a plausible event: a large receipt arriving two weeks late, a supplier requiring a deposit or an essential payment landing earlier. Explain why it could happen, the amount affected and the revised timing. Avoid a blanket percentage haircut that no one can connect to an actual business exposure.

BDC’s guidance on preparing finances for a slowdown emphasises scenario planning and comparing outcomes against a plan. The purpose here is similarly practical: identify the decision you would need to make, the person responsible and the latest date to act.

Make It a Weekly Routine

A forecast gets useful through maintenance, not through a complicated first build. Set a recurring review with the people who know collections and commitments.

• Reconcile: compare the finished week with actual bank movements. Explain differences as timing changes, amount changes or missing items.
• Challenge: confirm the largest upcoming receipts and payments. An unchanged spreadsheet is not evidence that the assumptions remain true.
• Roll: keep a dated copy of the previous forecast. Duplicate the Blank tab, then set the new start date and actual opening cash. Paste the remaining 12 weeks of input values into weeks 1–12, then add a new week 13. Keep the formulas intact.
• Decide: record the lowest projected cash point, any buffer breach and an action owner with a deadline. Keep the last forecast so you can learn which assumptions repeatedly fail.

Enter actual closing cash in the Actual closing cash row; Variance vs forecast compares it with the forecast. These actuals are entered manually, not imported from your bank. This closing-cash comparison is not a complete transaction-level variance ledger. Keep a dated assumptions and actions record alongside it.

Know When the Weekly View Is Not Enough

A weekly closing balance can hide a shortfall on payroll day that recovers after a customer pays later that week. Use a daily view around tight periods. Likewise, cash in a different entity or currency may not be available where a payment is due; do not combine balances without checking transfer constraints and timing.

Start with a reliable, explainable view. Add detail when it changes a decision—not because another tab makes the template look more sophisticated.

The aim is not to predict every payment perfectly. It is to see pressure early enough to have choices.

Preview the Google Sheets template · Make your own copy